Your ultimate Oscars cheat sheet: Best Picture edition

If you're placing bets ahead of this year's Oscars on April 25, you're gonna wanna do a little bit of research. That means not only making the Best Picture nominees your must-watches over the weekend, but using our cheat sheet below on which films are sure-fire frontrunners and which are, for lack of a better phrase, DOA. (Sorry!)

Here's your best tip, though: a lot of this year's nominees are incredibly timely, from Nomadland to Judas and the Black Messiah. But what the Academy loves more than anything is, well, itself, and that means movies all about the movies (e.g., Mank) and whatever their favourite legacy directors are up to (e.g., The Trial of the Chicago 7).

But if there's anything the last five years of Oscar wins have taught us, it's that there's always room for an underdog. I'm looking at you, Minari.

The Father

What's it about?

Anthony Hopkins plays a man living with dementia that seems to worsen by the day. Except he refuses any and all help, even as he begins to forget the details. When his daughter, played by The Crown's Olivia Colman, comes to visit him, she's got bad news: she's moving to Paris and it's time he let someone help him.

Who does it star?

The short answer? Queen Elizabeth and Hannibal Lector. Long answer? Hopkins, who already has an Oscar for 1992's The Silence of the Lambs, is nominated again this year (after four other nods over the years) for his role as the eponymous father. And Colman, who just wrapped two years on Netflix's The Crown, was previously nominated for an Oscar in 2019 for The Favourite and is also nominated for her role in The Father this year.

Why is it nominated?

The Father is as devastating as one might expect with even a quick glance at the above synopsis. But it’s far from misery porn. Instead, it paints an incredibly accurate depiction of the feeling of losing someone you love to a terrible disease, but also what it's like for that person to lose themselves. And, while this could be said for every performance they ever do, Hopkins and Colman have never been better and make for well-matched sparring partners.

Will it win?

Not likely. The Father doesn't have much glitz and it hasn't been at all buzzy as Best Pictures are. Then again, Hollywood loves its Brits, especially these two, and especially when they make us cry.

Judas and the Black Messiah

What's it about?

Judas and the Black Messiah tells the story of Fred Hampton, Chairman of the Illinois Black Panther Party, and how he was betrayed by FBI informant William O'Neal, which ultimately led to his assassination.

Who does it star?

With a hell of a résumé behind him that includes Get Out and Black Panther, Daniel Kaluuya stars as Hampton with all the heft required, while O'Neal is played by a mesmerizing Lakeith Stanfield (Knives Out, Sorry to Bother You). Both are nominated for Oscars.

Why is it nominated

Long and lovingly in the making by director Shaka King (and produced by Black Panther's Ryan Coogler), Judas and the Black Messiah is every bit the tragic true story, but plays like a heart-racing thriller that never lets you go.

Will it win?

It doesn't get more timely or more important than this film, and it's definitely the superior true story on the board. All of which is to say, it just depends on how political the Academy feels like getting.

Promising Young Woman

What's it about?

Traumatized by an event from her past, Cassandra is in search of vengeance at any cost and has a long list of sexual predators to get through and little patience. But does she have the time?

Who does it star?

Carey Mulligan in her best role yet, defying her usual love of straight drama and playing a woman out for blood and with a palpable rage. The film also co-stars an impressive collection of squeaky-clean boys-next-door as the exact kind of "nice guys" you'd never suspect to be all-out predators (hello, Adam Brody and Max Greenfield).

Why is it nominated?

Masterfully and scathingly written by Emerald Fennell, who also directs and is nominated for both duties, there are very few revenge thrillers like this one. Poignant, hilarious and unexpected, Promising Young Woman is a rare desert. It also has an ending that is sure to never leave you, and a trailer that featured an instrumental version of Britney Spears’ “Toxic,” which is reason enough I would’ve nominated it.

Will it win?

This is a movie that prominently features a romantic montage in a drug store set to Paris Hilton's underrated "Stars Are Blind." Make of that what you will.

Sound of Metal

What's it about?

The life of heavy metal drummer Ruben is thrown up in the air when he discovers that he's losing his hearing.

Who does it star?

Nominated for an Oscar for his performance, the talented (and very handsome) Riz Ahmed stars as Ruben. He previously won an Emmy for the 2017 HBO series The Night Of.

Why is it nominated?

Much like The Father, Sound of Metal uses every cinematic element to convey what its central character is feeling, in particular, through sound. It's a moving, full-body experience, largely thanks to Ahmed's heartbreaking performance.

Will it win?

Sadly, nope. Sound of Metal is every bit the small film, and perhaps too niche for the Academy, who it's very difficult to imagine emoting along to heavy metal. 

Mank

What's it about?

Mank follows the story of screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz as he attempts to finish the famed screenplay for 1941's Citizen Kane, granting its audience a behind-the-scenes look into old Hollywood through the eyes of an alcoholic curmudgeon. A true thrill!

Who does it star?

Ever the transformer, Gary Oldman plays Mankiewicz and Amanda Seyfried plays Marion Davies alongside a long list of familiar faces, including Lily Collins, Charles Dance and Bill Nye (!). Seyfried, though, is your reason to watch in a career-defining performance. She is nominated alongside Oldman.

Why is it nominated?

As one of the most prolific directors we have today, David Fincher's name is always in the mouth of the Academy, which also has a deep love for old Hollywood and movies about movies. Not only that, but there's a deeper story to this one: Fincher's father Jack wrote the film's script in the 1990s. Back then, it was meant to star Kevin Spacey and Jodie Foster – imagine that! – but Fincher was never able to get the approval to shoot in black and white. Jack died in 2003 and, in 2019, three decades since its inception, Fincher made the deal he always wanted when Netflix threw wads upon wads of cash his way and here we are.

Will it win?

A movie shot in black and white with a plot that revolves around old Hollywood? If one had a Best Picture checklist, you could say this crosses every single box and then some. It's what we call Oscar bait.

Minari

What's it about?

A story familiar to many immigrants and children of immigrants, Minari follows Jacob and Monica as they move to Arkansas in the 1980s, where Jacob builds a farm in hopes of granting their two children a better life and bringing a taste of Korea to America. As Monica frets over whether he will prove successful, her mother Soonja visits to bring much-needed joy to the family.

Who does it star?

Steven Yeun achingly leads the way as Jacob in what's a far cry from his Walking Dead days, while Han Ye-ri as Monica is so heartrending (look out for a touching scene in which she washes his hair after a long day on the farm, and both channel deep, unspoken pain and love). Meanwhile, Youn Yuh-Jung as Soonja and Alan S. Kim as son David bring the laughs in their incredibly endearing performances.

Why is it nominated?

A stunning film with gorgeous performances all around, Minari tells a version of the American dream we so rarely get to see, and an authentic one based on director Lee Isaac Chung's own childhood. From the score to the direction, it's easily one of the best films of the last decade, let alone the year.

Will it win?

It absolutely should and there is some momentum behind it, having picked up six nominations. Still, the Golden Globes were embroiled in controversy this year when it nominated Minari in the Best Foreign Language Film category, despite being a quintessentially American film, serving as a reminder that all-POC casts still struggle to receive the recognition they deserve. Fortunately, it scored a Best Picture nod at the Oscars. Though the Oscars have been diversity-averse in the past, they are striving to do better, adding inclusivity requirements for eligible films. Moonlight and Parasite were winners in the last five years and we're hopeful that the Academy will continue to recognize the talents of BIPOC in the film industry.

Nomadland

What's it about?

Fern is a woman who has lost everything – her job, her husband – and so decides to live as a nomad and travel across the U.S. It's based on the 2017 non-fiction book Nomadland: Surviving America in the Twenty-First Century by Jessica Bruder.

Who does it star?

The always incomparable Frances McDormand stars as Fern in a riveting performance that could score her Best Actress. David Strathairn co-stars, while real-life nomads Linda May, Swankie and Bob Wells also appear.

Why is it nominated?

For over a year, Nomadland has maintained its buzz, and much of that is due to the great Chloé Zhao, who wrote, directed, edited and produced it. McDormand actually optioned the film rights to Bruder's book in 2017 and, after seeing Zhao's film The Rider at TIFF that year, approached her to take on the project. Call it a very promising match.

Will it win?

With Frances McDormand at the head of a timely story that is poetic and cinematographic eye-candy, Nomadland is the clear frontrunner, having already picked up countless key awards. With Zhao being the first Asian woman nominated for Best Director – an award she is very likely to win – we can call this an overall win.

The Trial of the Chicago 7

What's it about?

Directed and verbosely written by Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network, The Newsroom), the film follows the true-to-life Chicago Seven, a group of anti-Vietnam War protesters who were charged with conspiracy and crossing state lines with the intention of inciting riots at the 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago.

Who does it star?

A handsome ensemble cast that includes Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Sacha Baron Cohen (who is nominated for Best Supporting Actor), Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Michael Keaton, Frank Langella, John Carroll Lynch, Eddie Redmayne, Mark Rylance, Jeremy Strong and Ben Shenkman.

Why is it nominated?

Aaron Sorkin, Aaron Sorkin, Aaron Sorkin. Oh, and Aaron Sorkin.

Will it win?

Mmm... as a Sorkin film, it is a guaranteed Best Picture frontrunner and that says just about everything, doesn't it?

The 93rd Academy Awards will air Sunday, April 25 at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT on CTV.

BEFORE YOU GO: Oscars nominations making history

[video_embed id='2160714']BEFORE YOU GO: Oscars nominations making history[/video_embed]